President Donald Trump was quick to launch a series of unprecedented tariff and trade policies at the start of his comeback term in 2025. But his efforts have caused uncertainty for American consumers and international markets. To discuss the economic outlook — and the potential pitfalls — in this new era of “Trumponomics,” economist Menzie Chinn will join the UW Now Live on August 5.
Chinn, a professor of public policy and economics in the UW’s La Follette School of Public Affairs, specializes in macroeconomics and international finance. He is coeditor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, coauthor of the blog Econbrowser, and coauthor of the textbook International Economics (2025). He served on the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2000 to 2001 and has been a research associate for the National Bureau of Economic Research for more than 20 years.
Chief Area of Research:
My main area of research involves open economy macroeconomics and international finance. This is a broad area, encompassing the determinants of business cycles, exchange rates, the pattern of trade deficits, the impact of government debt on interest rates, and [the] movement of capital between countries. Most recently, I have been working on the effects of using economic sanctions, tariffs, and other economic factors on the role of the dollar as the dominant international currency.
On the UW Now Live, I’ll Discuss:
The macroeconomic outlook for the U.S. economy in the context of an ongoing trade war and the associated elevated level of policy uncertainty, as well as the [Trump] administration’s activities to curtail immigration. I’ll also touch on how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has accelerated the accumulation of government debt and has hence constrained the ability of the government to respond when we hit the next recession.
One Thing I’d Like Viewers to Remember Is:
We are entering uncharted territory, where we have raised both the level and variability of taxes on imported goods to levels not seen in a hundred years. This was an unforced error, and we all will be paying the price for this policy combination for years to come.
To Get Smart Fast, Read:
- For tracking the economy: Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings.
- For an international perspective: Peterson Institute for International Economics: Economic Outlook.
- For the short-term macroeconomic outlook, the Calculated Risk blog and Econbrowser blog.
